Potential impacts of climate change

Climate projection: Hotter, drier summers

Effect: Higher visitor numbers

Potential impacts:

• Heat stress in visitors may become more likely during hot dry summers
• Damage to sensitive habitats may increase with visitor pressure
• Increased ignition sources for wildfire
• PDNP infrastructure may be unable to cope with greater visitor numbers
• More visitors could be able to experience the PDNP

Effect: Increased periods of drought

Potential impacts:

• Greater prevalence of drought tolerant plants on high moorland may increase heather dominance
• Drought conditions may promote peat decomposition and increase the rate of erosion in low plant cover sites
• Estate parklands may be affected as drought sensitive plants die off and brown patches develop
• White Peak meadows and grassland could lose drought sensitive plants and have generally poor growth during drought

Climate projection: Combined effects

Effect: Increased threat from pathogens and pests

Potential impacts:

• Ornamental trees and plants in parkland could be more susceptible to disease due to increased environmental stress
• Woodland trees may be more susceptible to disease due to environmental stress
• Country houses may be at increased risk from pest infestations, especially during wet winters
• Livestock diseases may spread more easily as livestock are under increased stress, especially during wet winters

Climate projection: Increased storm events

Effect: Intense rainfall, strong winds, and flooding

Potential impacts:

• More frequent high waters could mean that show caves are closed more often
• Flash floods in White Peak river valleys could cause reduced access and danger to visitors
• Temporary road and rail closures due to storms may increase, limiting access.
• Infrastructure damage may cause long term closures for repairs
• Flooding on paths may leave some areas inaccessible
• Pre-emptive closures due to public safety risks may occur on popular routes and locations
• Estate lands are vulnerable to storm damage, with flooding of the grounds and damage to the buildings potentially increasing
• Local events may be cancelled more often due to unpredictable weather
• Increased weathering of limestone may cause rock falls, altering the landscape and reducing access