Potential impacts of climate change

Climate projection: Drier summers

Effect: Higher visitor numbers

Potential impacts:

• Increased ignition sources for wildfire

Effect: Increased frequency and severity of wildfire

Potential impacts:

• Dry heather or grass moorlands of the Dark and South West Peak are particularly at risk
• Damage to carbon stores in the PDNP
• Loss of vegetation cover combined with ash and sediment entering watercourses could decrease water quality and require increased treatment
• Severe wildfire events can burn large amounts of peat, releasing carbon that will take years to replace (even in active blanket bog)
• Access to the PDNP could be interrupted by wildfire burns, the creation of high-risk exclusion areas, or post burn restoration
• Erosion of bare peat may be accelerated after wildfire burns
• Restoration works could be set back significantly, potentially requiring a full program of works before the previous condition is restored
• Wildfire may also affect woodland; a less common occurrence but still damaging to carbon stores

Climate projection: Changes in rainfall patterns

Effect: Nutrient concentration and flushing

Potential impacts:

• Eutrophication in stagnant areas from low flows in summer
• Pollutants such as heavy metals may be concentrated
• Nutrient depletion through flushing in winter altering the freshwater species assemblage and its filtering capacity
• Decline in water quality
• Nitrogen accumulation in blanket bogs could lead to a shift in plant species composition and potential loss of carbon from drier peat

Climate projection: Combined effects

Effect: Increased threat from pathogens and pests

Potential impacts:

• Damaged and stressed trees will be more susceptible to disease

Effect: Increased plant growth

Potential impacts:

• Species assemblages of habitats may be altered
• Greater uptake and storage of carbon in habitats such as woodlands
• Reduced water quality as non-native species expand and create bare ground vulnerable to erosion during winter dieback
• Infrastructure and access routes into and within the PDNP may be affected

Climate projection: Increased storm events

Effect: Intense rainfall, strong winds, and flooding

Potential impacts:

• Erosion may cause water quality in watercourses and reservoirs to decrease, leading to an increase in water treatment costs
• Erosion of peat could lead to increased gullying in blanket bogs and the release of stored carbon, making peatland habitat restoration works more difficult, or reversing early stage projects, and reducing the ability of the PDNP to act as a carbon sink
• Woodland trees could be damaged or killed by wind throw or root exposure
• Damage to transport links and infrastructure is likely to affect visitor access, preventing physical exercise and recreation
• Visitor traffic could become concentrated at fewer sites that are more accessible, reducing the mental health benefits of wild places and a feeling of escape