Potential impacts of climate change

Climate projection: Drier summers

Effect: Increased periods of drought

Potential impacts:

• Lower productivity may increase grazing damage if stocking levels are kept constant
• Drought may cause drying out and exposure of buried artefacts and deposits, increasing degradation
• Loss of drought sensitive plants could decrease the diversity of meadows and calaminarian grassland
• White Peak dewponds may dry up and become abandoned
• Underwater archaeological features may be exposed more often, leading to environmental degradation and damage from visitors
• Drought sensitive trees may be lost from traditional hedgerows

Effect: Increased wildfire risk

Potential impacts:

• Increase in wildfire risk could cause severe damage to PDNP uplands, especially dry heather moorland
• Buried artefacts and deposits could be exposed and damaged by wildfire and subsequent erosion
• Silt and soot entering reservoirs could increase the difficulty of water management

Climate projection: Combined effects

Effect: Land use change

Potential impacts:

• Higher stocking levels on less affected sites may increase grazing pressure, especially on moorland edges
• White Peak meadows may be converted to permanent pasture
• Intensification may damage archaeological features and deposits
• Landholdings may be consolidated and traditional field patterns and boundaries lost
• Traditional farm buildings could be converted to modern holiday homes
• Managed moorland may become uneconomical and convert to other land use
• Moorland management may increase to counter climate change losses, increasing moorland degradation
• White Peak dewponds may become disused as they can no longer cope with drier summers and are replaced by less traditional water systems

Effect: Increased plant growth

Potential impacts:

• Building foundations and structure may be damaged by increased root growth, particularly if poorly maintained
• Scrub encroachment and rampant plant growth may cover ground features
• Buried artefacts and deposits are at risk of root damage
• Moorland edges may succeed to acid grassland assemblage
• Meadows may become species poor as fast growing species dominate

Climate projection: Increased storm events

Effect: Intense rainfall, strong winds, and flooding

Potential impacts:

• Constructions on watercourses may be damaged or destroyed by flood waters
• Historical water management features may be damaged or removed to reduce flood risk
• Heavy rain may damage older buildings and drive modernisation
• Archaeological landmarks may be damaged by storm rains, wind-thrown trees or covered by sediment runoff
• Moorlands may experience increased erosion
• Riverside and floodplain meadows may be more frequently inundatedBuried deposits could be at greater risk of exposure and degradation due to erosion by wind and water
• Buried deposits could be at greater risk of exposure and degradation due to erosion by wind and water