Current condition, vulnerability and adaptive capacity of features

Lead mining features

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Adaptive capacity rating

Lead mining in the PDNP has been rated ‘high’ on our vulnerability scale. This score is due to high sensitivity and exposure to climate change variables, coupled with a highly variable current condition, and moderate adaptive capacity.

Lead mining remains in the PDNP are in variable condition, some high value sites are in very good condition, but many other hillocks and sites of ecological interest have been degraded. Changes in the climate could have a major direct impact on these sites altering the composition of the important calaminarian grassland habitats, while increased storm events could lead to pollution further downstream and damage to remaining archaeological features. Spoil tips and workings often comprise loose soils and deposits that are very vulnerable to erosion by wind water and abrasion. Surface features are particularly vulnerable to agricultural improvement, such as infilling and levelling.

While some calaminarian grassland species have capacity to adapt, sites are fragmented and recovery from damaging events may be slow. Archaeological features have less adaptive capacity and should be considered a non-replaceable resource. Factors which may help to partially offset climate stressors include the good diversity of archaeological features which still exist, the diverse micro-topography of the remaining lead landscape, and the relatively well-studied nature of assets in the PDNP.

Wet grassland and rush pasture

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Wet grassland and rush pasture in the PDNP have been rated ‘high’ on our vulnerability scale. This score is due to high sensitivity and exposure to climate change variables, the fragmented nature of the more rare and biodiverse rush-pasture type habitats, coupled with a moderate adaptive capacity.

Mismanagement and drainage has resulted in many areas of wet grassland becoming species poor, some being dominated by purple moor-grass. The reliance of these grasslands on water input coupled with the economically uncertain nature of upland farming mean that climate changes have the potential for large direct and indirect impacts.

However, through environmentally sensitive management and restoration of water tables it should be possible to partially offset some of these impacts. The key adaptation measures are to join up and enhance remaining fragments of rush pasture where it is possible to maintain or increase water levels; and to accept that some areas may need to be converted to other habitat types such as flower rich meadows. The diversification of the sward in purple moor-grass dominated blanket bogs through the reintroduction of Sphagnum mosses should increase the biodiversity and the future resilience of these wetlands.

Blanket bog

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Blanket bog and associated features in the PDNP have been rated ‘very high’ on our vulnerability scale. This score is due to high sensitivity and exposure to climate change variables, coupled with a very poor ‘non-functional’ current condition, and a low adaptive capacity.

Historically in an extremely degraded condition, many areas are recovering under Site of Special Scientific Interest (SSSI) and Special Area of Conservation (SAC) designations and through landscape scale conservation works. Areas undergoing conservation works are likely to be less vulnerable than those which are not; and modelling suggests that the lower altitude bogs on the eastern edge of the Dark Peak may be among the most vulnerable areas, whilst the more continuous and higher altitude areas in the north of the PDNP may be less vulnerable. The area and quality of active blanket bog in the PDNP may be reduced by climate change.

Heather moorland and mixed heath

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Heather moorland and mixed heath in the Peak District National Park has been rated ‘high’ on our vulnerability scale. This score is due to high sensitivity and exposure to climate change variables, with a relatively poor but recovering current condition, and a moderate adaptive capacity.

Current heath condition in the PDNP is generally poor due to historical stressors and poor management. Modelling suggests that areas such as Eyam Moor and heathland around Chatsworth (for example Brampton East Moor) are likely to be some of the most vulnerable to climate change due to their south-easterly location and lower altitude. Changes in human behaviour may have an important impact on this managed environment. Less biodiverse areas are likely to have the lowest adaptive capacity, meaning moorland with high heather dominance is at risk from climate change. Heathland does however have the advantage of economic and organisational resources dedicated to its conservation, and has high connectivity across large areas. Large areas are protected under Site of Special Scientific Interest (SSSI) and Special Area of Conservation (SAC) designations. In the future, PDNP moorlands are likely to become important habitat for species that currently have a more southerly distribution, such as the Dartford warbler.

Limestone grassland

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Limestone grassland in the PDNP has been rated ‘moderate’ on our vulnerability scale. This score is due to high sensitivity and exposure to climate change variables, but also a high adaptive capacity.

Limestone grassland in the PDNP has a limited extent, but much of what remains is protected by Site of Special Scientific Interest (SSSI) designation. Overall habitat persistence is likely to be determined by non-climate or indirect human factors, for example changes in agricultural economics, with areas such as the dales likely to be impacted. The iconic Jacob’s-ladder grassland may be particularly vulnerable and in need of conservation actions.

Meadows

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Meadows and associated features in the PDNP have been rated ‘high’ on our vulnerability scale. This score is due to high sensitivity and exposure to climate change variables, coupled with a varied current condition and highly fragmented habitats, but with a moderate adaptive capacity.

Meadows are already in a poor state in the PDNP, with only a few small patches with very limited connectivity remaining. Climate change impacts are unavoidable; key plants and their associated species may be lost. Some meadow species will be unable to thrive with changes in weather, leading to habitat change. Agricultural intensification caused by pressure to grow more food may lead to further habitat loss. A mismatch between flowering and pollination timings may lead to a decrease in some plants. Pollution may cause changes to soil composition. Hay-making may become difficult due to unpredictable weather. Overall, climate change stressors are likely to lead a loss of habitat and biodiversity.

Acid grassland

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Acid grassland in the PDNP has been rated ‘moderate’ on our vulnerability scale. This score is due to high sensitivity and exposure to climate change variables, coupled with a variable current condition and a high adaptive capacity.

The condition of acid grassland is variable, with some Site of Special Scientific Interest (SSSI) sites containing areas of high conservation value, but much acid grassland outside of SSSI designation in an unknown condition. The main impact on acid grassland will likely be a change in species composition in response to various climate change effects, either directly or in response to agricultural uses of these habitats. Livestock are a management tool for acid grassland which provide the opportunity for intervention to help this habitat to adapt to the changing climate.

Wet heath

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Wet heath in the PDNP has been rated ‘high’ on our vulnerability scale. This score is due to high sensitivity and exposure to climate change variables, with poorly documented current condition, and moderate adaptive capacity.

As wet heath depends on waterlogged soils, drying out of some sites represents the greatest risk, with potential reduction of Sphagnum cover adding to the problem. Despite being fragmented, wet heath grades into similar habitat types and so has reasonable connectivity. Organisational and financial support for moorland rewetting will benefit wet heath and counter some of the effects of climate change.

Wet woodland

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Wet woodland in the PDNP has been rated ‘high’ on our vulnerability scale. This score is due to high sensitivity and exposure to climate change variables, coupled with a poor, highly fragmented current condition, and a moderate adaptive capacity.

Wet woodlands in the PDNP are already highly fragmented, but many of the remaining patches are in good condition. Wet woodlands with low tree species diversity are likely to more vulnerable than those that are more diverse. The area of wet woodland in the PDNP may be reduced by climate change.

Woodland

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Woodlands in the PDNP have been rated ‘high’ on our vulnerability scale. This score is due to high sensitivity and exposure to climate change variables, coupled with a poor fragmented current condition, and a moderate adaptive capacity.

Woodland condition in the PDNP is variable, with smaller patches generally in poor condition, but larger areas under Site of Special Scientific Interest (SSSI) protection faring better. Smaller woodlands with low tree species diversity are likely to be more vulnerable than those that are larger and more diverse. The area of woodland in the PDNP may be reduced by climate change, especially single species woodlands, though the demand for climate change mitigation may encourage new woodland creation.

Dew ponds and other ponds

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Adaptive capacity rating

This score is due to high sensitivity and exposure to climate change variables, coupled with a poor current condition, and a low adaptive capacity.

Extreme events including flood and drought could have a significant impact on this feature, reducing their functionality and potentially leading to ponds being abandoned or infilled. Dew ponds with intact historic surfaces (clay and cobbles) are becoming increasingly rare. The adaptive capacity of this feature is low as there are a limited number that are functional. PDNPA funding is currently available for pond restoration, but this is very limited.

Reservoirs

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Reservoirs in the PDNP have been rated ‘high’ on our vulnerability scale. This score is due to high sensitivity and exposure to climate change variables, coupled with a moderate current condition, and a moderate adaptive capacity.

Land management practices, human behaviour, and invasive species currently affect the water quality in reservoirs and the species that live in and around them. Reservoir water levels, flow rates and quality may be compromised by climate stressors influencing sites at the catchment level. Habitat for wildlife in and around the reservoirs is likely to change. Reservoirs naturally fluctuate with weather events giving them good ability to recover. However a decline in reservoir water quality continues to pose the biggest threat to people and wildlife that rely on it.

Rivers and streams

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Rivers and streams in the PDNP have been rated ‘high’ on our vulnerability scale. This score is due to high sensitivity and exposure to climate change variables, with a reasonable current condition, and a moderate adaptive capacity.

Most major rivers and streams are in a relatively good condition, with localised contamination and invasive species issues. The greatest effects on watercourses are likely to be from changes in precipitation cycles. Watercourses will become more variable, with higher flow in winter and lower flow in summer. Freshwater plant and animal communities are likely to be altered by these changes. Higher temperatures are also likely to affect freshwater communities, with suitable climate space moving northwards and upstream, and warmer conditions causing changes in water chemistry. Rivers and streams are relatively adaptable, with freshwater species having developed dispersal techniques and the watercourses having diverse forms. Much legislation exists to protect and improve rivers and streams, and some funding is available for water quality and flood management works, which will improve river and stream resilience.

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Vulnerabilty of Species

Adder

Vulnerability rating
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Adaptive capacity rating

Adders in the PDNP have been rated ‘high’ on our vulnerability scale. This score is due to high sensitivity and exposure to climate change variables, coupled with a poor and fragmented current condition, and a moderate adaptive capacity.

The PDNP adder population currently appears to be relatively stable despite its reduced and fragmented nature. Small adder populations are likely to be more vulnerable than larger, more stable populations. Adders have some scope for adapting to climate change, particularly if habitat management is continually improved. Translocation to new sites may also be an option for securing a larger population range within the PDNP.

Aquatic invertebrates

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Aquatic invertebrates in the PDNP have been rated ‘high’ on our vulnerability scale. This score is due to high sensitivity and exposure to climate change variables and a poor current condition, but with a moderate adaptive capacity.

Aquatic invertebrate populations in the PDNP likely mirror the national decline, with many species threatened by pollution and invasive species. As aquatic organisms, these invertebrates depend on good water quality, and so they are most sensitive to climate change effects that reduce water quality such as increased siltation and pollution. Changes in annual water cycles, such as altered flow rates and drying out of some habitat, are also likely to have a significant effect. Aquatic invertebrates have a moderate adaptive capacity due to their high diversity and dispersal, and may benefit from economic and institutional efforts to improve water quality.

Bilberry bumblebee

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Bilberry bumblebees in the PDNP have been rated ‘high’ on our vulnerability scale. This score is due to high sensitivity and exposure to climate change variables, coupled with an unclear but likely poor current condition, and a moderate adaptive capacity.

Habitat changes and a loss of key flowering plants are the biggest threats to this species. Bilberry bumblebees have some scope for adapting to climate change, especially if habitat management focuses on improving floral diversity during nest-building season.

Curlew

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This score is due to high sensitivity and exposure to climate change variables, coupled with a poor current condition, and a low adaptive capacity.

Extreme events including flood and drought could have a significant impact on this feature, reducing their functionality and potentially leading to ponds being abandoned or infilled. Dew ponds with intact historic surfaces (clay and cobbles) are becoming increasingly rare. The adaptive capacity of this feature is low as there are a limited number that are functional. PDNPA funding is currently available for pond restoration, but this is very limited.

Dipper

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Dipper in the PDNP have been rated ‘high’ on our vulnerability scale. This score is due to high sensitivity and exposure to climate change variables, with a poor but potentially recovering current condition, and a moderate adaptive capacity.

The population size in the PDNP is not well known, but national trends show a decline in dipper populations. The largest climate change impacts on dipper will be those that affect their invertebrate prey. Increased water acidity and excess nitrogen will therefore be likely to have the greatest effect. Changes to annual flow cycles will likely also have an impact on dipper populations. The dipper itself is only moderately adaptable, having specific habitat requirements and low dispersal, but could benefit from economic and institutional support. This will mostly be indirect, through initiatives to improve water quality and natural flood management.

Dunlin

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Dunlin in the PDNP have been rated ‘very high’ on our vulnerability scale. This score is due to high sensitivity and exposure to climate change variables, with a moderately unfavourable current condition and a low adaptive capacity.

Dunlin populations in the PDNP have been in decline historically, but recent increases in some areas are a positive sign for the population as a whole. Dunlin are a relatively mobile species, and rising temperatures are likely to cause breeding populations to move northwards and be lost from the PDNP. Further loss of blanket bog functionality may also disadvantage dunlin populations due to reductions in their invertebrate prey. Blanket bog restoration has proven very beneficial for dunlin, but is may not be enough to retain breeding populations in the future.

Golden plover

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Golden plover in the PDNP have been rated ‘high’ on our vulnerability scale. This score is due to high sensitivity and exposure to climate change variables, a variable current condition, and a moderate adaptive capacity.

Golden plover populations in the PDNP show signs of recovery from historic decline, increasing in recent years. The greatest risk to PDNP golden plover populations is loss of suitable habitat as temperatures rise. Populations will likely move northwards out of the park boundary over the next century. Effects on coastal wintering grounds will likely also be significant, with sea level rise removing habitat and causing greater construction of sea defences. Golden plover are not very adaptable, as a moorland specialist with limited space within the PDNP to move with changing conditions. However, support from conservation organisations and environmental stewardship schemes should go some way to improving their resilience.

Great crested newt

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Great crested newts in the PDNP have been rated ‘high’ on our vulnerability scale. This score is due to high sensitivity and exposure to climate change variables, coupled with a poor current condition, and a moderate adaptive capacity.

The PDNP great crested newt population appears to be stable, having recovered from heavy historical declines. Terrestrial and aquatic habitats are both essential for the survival of this species, with ponds being most at risk in the face of climate change. Their longevity and the existence of metapopulations give this species some adaptability. However much depends on land management decisions and ongoing maintenance of ponds.

Lapwing

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Lapwing in the PDNP have been rated ‘high’ on our vulnerability scale. This score is due to high sensitivity and exposure to climate change variables, a potentially improving current condition but an only moderate adaptive capacity.

Lapwing in the PDNP have suffered historical decline, and their recovery has been variable despite targeted management. Some of the greatest impacts on lapwing populations will be in effects on their invertebrate prey. Drier conditions and increased flooding are likely to decrease the abundance of soil invertebrates, reducing lapwing breeding success. As a bird mostly associated with farmland, human behaviour changes will be very important for future lapwing populations – but these are difficult to predict. Lapwing have some capacity to adapt to a climate change, and this would be helped by conservation initiatives on in-bye land.

Merlin

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Merlin in the PDNP have been rated ‘very high’ on our vulnerability scale. This score is due to high sensitivity and exposure to climate change variables, with a poor current condition, and a low adaptive capacity score.

Merlin are a scarce species in the PDNP, with a small population that has not rebounded as well as some other raptors in recent years. Climate change poses a significant threat to merlin, as the PDNP and much of the UK will become unsuitable as temperatures rise. Merlin are very likely to be extinct from the PDNP by the end of the 21st century. Changes to merlin nesting habitat, especially mature heather stands may also put pressure on populations. Despite being a mobile species and able to change nesting habits, merlin are unlikely to be able to adapt enough to offset climate effects. This is due in part to insufficient support and management, but is largely due to the extent of climate impact.

Mountain hares

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Mountain hares in the PDNP have been rated ‘high’ on our vulnerability scale. This score is due to high sensitivity and exposure to climate change variables, coupled with a moderate current condition, and with a moderate adaptive capacity.

Currently with a declining population, mountain hares are particularly vulnerable in winter as energy demands are high. Healthy habitat for shelter and food are vital for the continued survival of this species. While this is an isolated population, the high population growth rate of mountain hares gives them a good chance at recovery from climate change events.

Pied flycatchers

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Pied flycatchers in the PDNP have been rated ‘high’ on our vulnerability scale. This score is due to high sensitivity and exposure to climate change variables, but a moderate current condition, and a moderate adaptive capacity.

Pied flycatchers in the PDNP appear to be doing reasonably well, with known populations doing better than the national average. Trophic mismatches with their nesting food sources are likely to increase as climate change shifts the timing of annual events such as migration and leaf bud burst. Climate change effects in West African wintering grounds will also be important. The moderate adaptive capacity of PDNP populations mostly relies on good management of key sites.

Ring ouzel

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Ring ouzel in the PDNP have been rated ‘very high’ on our vulnerability scale. This score is due to high sensitivity and exposure to climate change variables, with a declining current condition, and a low adaptive capacity.

Ring ouzel population trends in the PDNP appear to be following the national trend, declining and retracting to upland locations. Changing conditions and mismatch in the timing of food availability may mean that in the future, suitable habitat can only be found north of the PDNP. Greater disturbance from increased visitor numbers may also have a significant effect. Despite their reasonable dispersal ability, ring ouzel are unlikely to adapt quickly enough to match changing conditions, and management interventions are not well known enough to counter this.

Short-eared owl

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Short-eared owl in the PDNP have been rated ‘high’ on our vulnerability scale. This score is due to high sensitivity and exposure to climate change variables, with a poor but recovering current condition, and a moderate adaptive capacity.

Short-eared owl populations in the PDNP appear to be recovering from historical decline despite continuing threats. Climate change effects on their small mammal prey may have a significant impact on short-eared owls. They are a widespread and mobile migrant, so short-eared owls are quite adaptable to changing conditions. However, this may include moving out of the PDNP. Conservation actions taken in the PDNP could assist short-eared owls in adapting to changing conditions.

Snipe

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Snipe in the PDNP have been rated ‘high’ on our vulnerability scale. This score is due to high sensitivity and exposure to climate change variables, but with a recovering current condition and a moderate adaptive capacity.

Snipe populations in the PDNP appear to be increasing and recovering from historical losses. Changes in ground conditions will likely have the biggest impact on snipe populations: both dry and waterlogged conditions will restrict access to their invertebrate prey. These effects will be particularly important during nesting season. Snipe in the PDNP mainly breed in very specific habitat, but have the potential to adapt to changing conditions. Money available through agri-environment schemes, as well as support from conservation organisations will assist greatly with snipe adaptive capacity.

Swallow

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Swallows in the PDNP have been rated ‘moderate’ on our vulnerability scale. This score is due to high sensitivity and exposure to climate change variables, but with a reasonable current condition and a high adaptive capacity.

PDNP swallow populations appear to be faring well despite some recent losses. Drier conditions restricting nest building are likely to be leading stressors on future swallow populations. Changes to their wintering grounds may also have strong effects that are more difficult to address. Despite their low conservation priority and restricted funding and support, swallows have shown themselves to be very adaptable birds, already showing some adaptation to climate change.

Twite

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Twite in the PDNP have been rated ‘very high’ on our vulnerability scale. This score is due to high sensitivity and exposure to climate change variables, with a very poor current condition approaching complete loss, and a low adaptive capacity.

Twite are faring poorly in the PDNP, with moorland populations lost in many places and a small quarry dwelling population in the White Peak being the largest known colony. Climate change may cause twite to move out of the PDNP as they are on the south-eastern edge of their UK range here. Changes in flowering and seed setting timings of their plant food resources may cause a mismatch between twite nesting dates and seed abundance, and interrupt continuous food supply. Twite are a mobile species, but are unlikely to overcome future challenges presented to them. The greatest pressure will probably come from human land use change, so institutional and economic support will be needed to implement management interventions. Unfortunately, the resources currently available do not appear sufficient to retain twite in the PDNP.

Waxcap fungi

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Waxcaps in the PDNP have been rated ‘high’ on our vulnerability scale. This score is due to high sensitivity and exposure to climate change variables, with a variable and often unknown current condition, and only a moderate adaptive capacity.

Waxcap grassland condition in the PDNP is variable, with some sites of national importance, but many others unknown or under-recorded. The impact of climate change on waxcap grasslands is unclear, as they are a habitat more dependent on management than climate. One factor that will be likely to have an effect is increased nitrogen deposition, which may act to reduce the extent and abundance of waxcaps. Waxcaps are not particularly adaptable as a genus, but management knowledge and application has some potential to reduce the impact of climate change.