Local events

Overall vulnerability

Feature assessed:

• Local events

Special qualities:

• Characteristic settlements with strong communities and traditions
• An inspiring space for escape, adventure, discovery and quiet reflection

Feature description:

The towns and villages across the PDNP hold a wide range of events throughout the year that are attended by local people as well as visitors from the surrounding communities and further afield. Many have origins dating back over a hundred years, while others are so ancient that their origin is not fully known.

Many events are specific to individual communities. Examples include Castleton Garland Day and Winster Pancake Run. These types of events are often tied to a particular date in the year.

Well dressings are popular and are held on various dates between May and September and feature intricate designs created by pressing natural materials into clay boards. One of the earliest and well known is held in Tissington.

The wide range of events include carnivals, fell races, village fetes, sheep dog trials, and country shows are held in various locations including Hope, Chatsworth and the Manifold Valley.

How vulnerable are local events?

Local events in the PDNP have been rated ‘moderate’ on our vulnerability scale. This score is due to high sensitivity and exposure to climate change variables, with a relatively stable current condition, and with a high adaptive capacity.

Changes in the climate could have a significant impact on local events particularly those that rely on the weather or are tied to a specific date. The majority are run by volunteers and depend upon funds raised one year to finance the following year’s event. A series of poor years could mean the event is lost entirely.

In recent years a small number of events have been lost, however local events do have a high adaptive capacity as demonstrated by the Bakewell Show which changed its date and format in 2019 due to wet weather.

Current condition

Throughout the PDNP a vast range of events takes place throughout the course of the year.

They vary from those that are small community orientated events such as village fetes, to those that attract visitors from far and wide such as the country shows.

Many events are reliant on the weather and poor conditions such as successive wet summers can have a negative impact and contribute to events suffering financial losses.

A number have been lost in recent years such as the Hartington Steam Rally, while Bakewell Show was not held at all in 2018 and was scaled back in 2019 due to damage caused to the showground and revenue being lost.

What are the potential impacts of climate change?

Overall potential impact rating

Direct impacts of climate change

Climate change has the potential to have a significant impact on local events. The number of people who attend can often depend upon the weather, so hotter drier summers could see a rise in visitor numbers and those taking part – potentially diminishing quiet reflection areas at peak times. Data Certainty: High

Higher visitor numbers may also put pressure on access, and lead to a greater demand for water and shade particularly at sports events and shows that feature animals. Higher maximum summer temperatures would also increase the risk of heat stress for people and animals at such events. Data Certainty: High

Climate change may lead to changes in the timing of seasonal events such as lambing or calving and the flowering of certain plants, which could lead to changes in event dates for example country shows or well dressing festivals. Data Certainty: High An increase in the frequency and severity of storms and extreme weather could see the loss of vegetables and flowers for markets and the interruption or cancellation of such events. Data Certainty: Moderate

Increased rainfall after long dry periods could lead to greater fluctuations in water levels (in rivers and ponds) while access routes and infrastructure may be sensitive to heavy rain events because of flooding or erosion. Matlock Bath Illuminations depends on water levels in the River Derwent while well dressing clay is often soaked in local water bodies so traditional methods or timings may need to be altered. Data Certainty: High

Human behaviour change

Visitor numbers are sensitive to weather conditions. An extended warm season could result in an alteration in the timing of peak visitor numbers. Some events may be held earlier or later in the year to avoid the hot mid-summer. There may also be an opportunity to create new events that could be spread throughout the warmer months and in more locations. Data Certainty: High

Sedimentation or erosion

Paths and access routes may be vulnerable to erosion by increased rainfall after long dry periods. This could affect access to events but also see organised events taking place over poor ground conditions with routes widened by participants trying to avoid the worst affected sections leading to further erosion. Data Certainty: Moderate

Any impacts on infrastructure such as blocked drains, gullies on roads, damage to roads and rail routes could disrupt or limit access to events. Data Certainty: High Paths may also be damaged or eroded not only leading to an increase in the maintenance required but also a need to change access to events or course routes for sporting events such as fell running. Data Certainty: Moderate

Nutrient changes or environmental contamination

A rise in visitor numbers attending events as a result of hotter, drier summers could see a decrease in air quality arising from traffic pollution. This may be offset by an increase in electric vehicles or use of public transport as a climate change mitigation response. Data Certainty: Moderate

Invasive or other species interactions

Increased temperatures will likely lead to an increase in the survival of pests and pathogens. As events can bring together people from all over the country there may be an increased risk from outbreaks or spread of pests and diseases. Data Certainty: Moderate

Changes in atmospheric composition such as increased carbon dioxide levels coupled with higher annual average temperatures could see some plants grow more vigorously. Paths would be more likely to become overgrown and un-usable and there may be a need for increased maintenance or the use of alternative routes for certain events. Data Certainty: Very Low

What is the adaptive capacity of local events?

Overall adaptive capacity rating

Many local events will have the capacity to recover or be adapted to climate changes with the support of those who organise them. It may be the timings of some events can be altered to different times of the years, for example. Some events may be less flexible if they have long traditions of being on the same day every year, and as a result these are likely to be the most vulnerable. Data Certainty: Moderate

Across the PDNP a diverse range of event types are held in diverse locations. The majority of areas and events will remain open even if some are closed or abandoned, and despite such changes an overall ‘programme of events’ is almost certain to continue. Data Certainty: High

The range of groups and organisations are as varied as the number of local events they organise. Large events such the Royal Horticultural Society (RHS) Chatsworth Flower Show have strong economic resources allowing them to respond and adapt, while smaller private events which are less well-financed are likely to have less adaptive capacity. Data Certainty: Moderate

Event management skill and information is an important resource in determining adaptive capacity. For example, organisers of many larger events typically have a risk assessment in place looking at adverse weather and using forecasts to determine if an event goes ahead, is postponed, or cancelled. In this respect smaller events run by local volunteers without such processes in place may be less resilient in the long term. Data Certainty: Moderate

In terms of maintaining public access to events, maintenance of main roads is carried out by Highways England (A628 only in the PDNP) and local highway authorities, with the latter also dealing with repairs to public rights of way and producing Rights of Way Improvement Plans alongside the PDNPA. Many organisations including water companies, National Trust, Moors for the Future Partnership and the Forestry Commission work to restore habitats across large upland areas, increasing resilience to climate change through Natural Flood Management of water catchments. Data Certainty: Moderate

Key adaptation recommendations for local events

Improve current condition to increase resilience

The current condition of a feature is an important factor alongside its sensitivity and exposure, in determining its vulnerability to climate change. These recommendations are aimed at improving the condition of the feature at present, therefore making it better able to withstand future changes to climate.

• Provide advice and support to help event organisers of locally run, volunteer led and traditional events to adapt to climate change and implement more robust processes.

• Assess the value of events and traditions to the PDNP economy and consider whether financial support and grants would be feasible to support the most vulnerable traditions.

• Adapt to increased visitor numbers as a result of hotter, drier summers. Encourage public transport usage for larger events and encourage the provision of extra buses and trains, and low carbon transport, to reduce congestion and improve air quality.

Improve current condition to increase resilience: Targeted conservation efforts for important sites and at risk areas

The current condition of a feature is an important factor alongside its sensitivity and exposure, in determining its vulnerability to climate change. These recommendations are conservation measures aimed at those sites that will have the biggest impact for this feature – either because they are particularly important for the feature or because they are most at risk from climate change.

• Create visitor management plans for peak times and honeypot areas. Identify areas that are vulnerable to crowding and influence behavioural changes to spread out visitor impact
• Manage visitor numbers at high-risk sites and events.