Golden plover

Overall vulnerability

Feature assessed:

• Golden plover (Pluvialis apricaria)

Special qualities:

• Internationally important and locally distinctive wildlife and habitats

Feature description:

The golden plover is a medium sized, short-billed wading bird with striking golden and black breeding plumage. Its mournful whistling call can be heard on PDNP moorland where it currently returns to breed each spring. The South Pennine Moors Special Protection Area (SPA) was designated partly because of the European importance of its breeding golden plover population. Britain holds the vast majority of the European breeding population, of which the South Pennines represent over 3%. In addition, PDNP breeding populations are some of the most southerly in the world.

How vulnerable are golden plover?

Golden plover in the PDNP have been rated ‘high’ on our vulnerability scale. This score is due to high sensitivity and exposure to climate change variables, a variable current condition, and a moderate adaptive capacity.

Golden plover populations in the PDNP show signs of recovery from historic decline, increasing in recent years. The greatest risk to PDNP golden plover populations is loss of suitable habitat as temperatures rise. Populations will likely move northwards out of the park boundary over the next century. Effects on coastal wintering grounds will likely also be significant, with sea level rise removing habitat and causing greater construction of sea defences. Golden plover are not very adaptable, as a moorland specialist with limited space within the PDNP to move with changing conditions. However, support from conservation organisations and environmental stewardship schemes should go some way to improving their resilience.

Current condition:

Golden plover populations appear to be recovering across the UK, having again reached 1994 population levels after a 20% decline in recent years. The PDNP population trend is less well known, with a slight decline shown by the 2004 Moorland Breeding Bird Survey, but is likely to be highly site specific. The greatest abundance has generally been found to the north of the Longdendale valley. However, there has been a loss of the species from generally drier, lower altitude bogs on the Eastern Peak District Moors and from the lower altitude fragmented bogs in the South West Peak. The historic extensive degradation of PDNP peatlands since the industrial revolution means there are likely to be fewer breeding pairs present than could potentially be supported if the habitat was in good condition. Disturbance, wildfire, high numbers of sheep and intensification of in-bye land have probably all played a role in keeping numbers below their potential. However, a significant increase in numbers and productivity of golden plovers at RSPB Dove Stone has been observed. This followed peatland revegetation and rewetting work, with numbers almost doubling between 2004 and 2017.

What are the potential impacts of climate change?

Overall potential impact rating

The PDNP is an important breeding ground for golden plover. In addition, climate change effects at their mainly coastal wintering grounds and other areas they use on passage may also have significant effects on this species. Climate change is likely to have detrimental impacts on golden plover.

Direct impacts of climate change

Climate change modelling has shown that golden plover may be lost from much of England as temperatures rise. Golden plover distribution is expected to contract to the north Pennines and Scottish Highlands. The loss of golden plover on the Eastern Peak District moors may be the first evidence of this shift: populations may have moved as suitable climate shifted northwards and upwards in altitude. Over the next century, the entire PDNP is likely to become unsuitable habitat for golden plover, and populations will move north. Data Certainty: Very High

Hotter, drier summers and increased drought events may have a significant impact on the invertebrates on which golden plover feed. Golden plover rely on crane fly as a food source. High summer temperatures can kill larvae in the peat surface, reducing numbers the following year. Pools may also dry up also reducing crane fly abundance. Reduced craneflies will reduce breeding success. A phenological mismatch may also be created between golden plover lay dates and crane fly emergence dates that will reduce the likelihood that early breeding attempts are successful. Data Certainty: Very High Modelling indicates that breeding success in South Pennine populations could be reduced by around 11% as a result.

Milder winters and warmer springs have been shown by various studies to have positive effects on winter survival, productivity and chick growth – and this may be the case in the PDNP at least in the short term. Data Certainty: Moderate

Human behaviour change

Rising sea levels and more frequent and severe storm events at the coast are likely to increase the construction of new hard flood defences. The construction of new barriers or squeezing of habitat would result in a loss of foraging sites and roosting locations, although in some areas it could also see the creation of some new mudflat habitat. This could reduce winter survival rates and decrease body condition at the start of the breeding season for some birds. On the other hand, these birds may opt to utilise lowland fields more, as these are rich in earthworms and soil invertebrates. Data Certainty: High

An increase in annual average temperatures and changed precipitation pattern have the potential to cause changes in agricultural economics in the PDNP and surrounding areas. Grass leys and in-bye land appear to be an important resource for birds on passage. Conversion of such areas to different uses could have a significant detrimental effect. Data Certainty: Low

Within the PDNP, hotter and drier summers are likely to increase further the currently high number of recreational users in the uplands. Golden plover have been shown to be sensitive to disturbance, especially where visitor pressure is high, resulting in a reduction in reproductive success. Data Certainty: Low

Climate change mitigation measures could be detrimental to golden plover. Data Certainty: Low An increase in windfarm construction or the afforestation of the uplands would be likely to result in a loss of habitat and a decline in numbers. However, the likelihood of these outcomes within the PDNP currently appears to be low.

Sedimentation or erosion

Erosion is likely to increase on some golden plover wintering grounds due to sea level rise. Loss of sediment from mudflats and sandbanks would reduce feeding area for wintering golden plover. This sediment may then be redeposited, changing the substrate composition and reducing invertebrate populations. Less available food resource and greater competition for habitat could reduce golden plover winter survival. Data Certainty: High

Greater weather extremes may increase erosion on golden plover breeding habitat. More frequent drought could increase cracking and shrinkage of peat, especially where it is exposed. Higher winter rainfall and an increase in summer storm events could increase erosion, especially on peat soils where vegetation cover is low and drought effects are greater. As PDNP moorland is already highly degraded, this could further reduce habitat area and suitability for golden plover. Data Certainty: Low

Invasive or other species interactions

Vegetation changes may decrease the suitability of golden plover habitat. A greater carbon availability due to increased atmospheric carbon dioxide levels combined with higher temperatures may increase plant growth rates in some areas. A generally increased sward would be detrimental to golden plover, as a short sward is preferred nesting and feeding habitat. Scrub encroachment may also occur, reducing habitat suitability. Data Certainty: Moderate

Increased annual average temperatures may increase the wintering survival of generalist predators such as red fox and carrion crow. Increased predator numbers would reduce the reproductive success of golden plover due to nest and chick predation. Data Certainty: Low

Changes in the PDNP climate may cause some grouse moor management to change in intensity. Changes to predator control may affect plovers. However, it is unclear what impact this would have. Though predator control can be beneficial for waders, projects such as the Dove Stone Partnership have shown that golden plover populations can grow without it. In some cases, predator control may even be sustaining inflated predator numbers. Data Certainty: Low

Nutrient changes or environmental contamination

Changes in annual precipitation cycles may affect nutrient availability in golden plover habitat. Greater water input in winter may cause flushing, reducing nutrient availability, while lesser input in summer may increase nutrient concentration in the remaining water. The functioning of habitats would be impacted, especially blanket bog. Invertebrate availability may be reduced. Data Certainty: Low

Other indirect climate change impacts

Drier summer conditions and an increase in the frequency of drought may increase the occurrence of wildfire in the PDNP. This risk could be exacerbated by increased vegetation growth rate. Wildfire will be more significant on drier heather moorland, which currently hosts much of the PDNP golden plover population. Data Certainty: Low

What is the adaptive capacity of golden plover?

Overall adaptive capacity rating

Despite being part of the large South Pennines population, golden plover in the PDNP face significant barriers to adaptation. Being at the south-eastern edge of their UK range, they have few neighbouring birds to bolster or replace lost populations. Crucially, as suitable breeding conditions move northwards with rising temperatures, golden plover are likely to respond by moving northwards out of the PDNP boundary. Local extinction within the PNDP is a strong possibility, as the birds either move to new habitat further afield or die out in unsuitable habitat. Data Certainty: High

Golden plover show some evidence of behavioural plasticity, which may increase their climate change resilience. Golden plover chicks are able to move considerable distances to locate areas of greater prey availability, allowing them to adapt to changing conditions. However, as a moorland specialist, they are unlikely to be able to adapt sufficiently as habitats change. Data Certainty: Moderate

Some economic resource is available which could help golden plover conservation in the PDNP. Most of the in-bye land used by golden plover near the Peak District Moors SPA has been identified and is already under environmental stewardship. However, the future effectiveness and implementation of such stewardship is currently unclear. Data Certainty: Low

Institutional support may assist golden plover resilience. Recent management of the uplands has had a greater focus on rewetting and revegetation by conservation organisations. Such interventions are likely to be beneficial for golden plover and increase the resilience of the habitats they depend on. PDNP golden plover habitat also lies within the South Pennines SPA, providing some protection. Data Certainty: Moderate

Golden plover are a well-studied species, so adaptation measures can be made with reasonable confidence. Around 21% of the British breeding population occur within SPAs, with reviews conducted semi-regularly on the status of the species within. These reviews specifically investigate climate change impacts, meaning golden plover responses to climate change and possible interventions can be well informed. Data Certainty: Moderate

Key adaptation recommendations for golden plover:

Improve current condition to increase resilience

The current condition of a feature is an important factor alongside its sensitivity and exposure, in determining its vulnerability to climate change. These recommendations are aimed at improving the condition of the feature at present, therefore making it better able to withstand future changes to climate.

• Blocking of drainage and rewetting of bogs and moors will increase the resilience of golden plover habitat to climate change.
• In-bye land can be good habitat for golden plover. Good management will allow golden plover and other waders to make use of these resources without sacrificing productivity.
• Predator control could be a useful tool in high predator density areas, but may inadvertently increase predator populations and disrupt other species interactions. Research is needed to determine if a more natural system would be a better option for the future.
• Well maintained footpaths across the moors will reduce disturbance of golden plover and other ground nesting birds.
• Conifer plantations have historically reduced golden plover habitat. Establishment of new plantations should be discouraged and existing plantations removed where they have an impact on golden plovers.
• Partnership with coastal conservation organisations and other organisations who manage winter feeding grounds to provide integrated management is a better strategy than breeding ground only methods.
• Encourage further uptake of environmental land management schemes by farmers within the PDNP.
• Develop fire contingency plans, and ensure management of habitats reduces fire risk e.g. rewetting and increasing species or structural diversity. Influence visitor and behaviour management plans and practices to minimise ignition risk.